I well understand that conjecture and its handmaiden, predictions, can be wrong headed and would never claim to foresee the future – but you gotta try. Of concern: will this biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression be known simply as the Great Recession, beginning to end about now – or will there be a nother Great Recession amounting to a Great Depression coming up when the unemployed, now spending far fewer consumer dollars, decide to save more and not buy faddish stuff sold in shopping malls. And will banks and financial institutions with no new restrictions just rack up new huge profits for themselves adding to our misery? Could be; hope not; don’t think so…could happen! Sinking sensation.

Not that shopping malls are a bad thing or the only places that sell toss away clothes and other sundries to entertain us and cover our bodies – its just that our current 65-70% consumer economy will likely come to be 60% or less consumer purchases according to economists on today’s FORUM on KQED FM – Host, Michael Krasny, taking a shot at comprehending the California economy and what we’re likely to face in the Greater Bay Area in close future years.

The outlook was a slight uptick for now – a probable OK Christmas for stores – with slight or heavy downtick following as people start to adjust their spending to reflect a different world – more like our grandparents? – than we’ve lived in since …well you name the year. And nobody believes the retail boom will return. Period. Maybe growth in tech and health care, agriculture, not retail.

This all has to do with a growth economy – growth of new stores included. Fascinating that in Japan the emphasis is clearly NOT growth; they’ve hit the limit of growth and tell their young college grads – Get a Job – a Steady Job! Great! You’re a success.

So our ideas of success and failure, what we need and don’t need are definitely in flux. I’m happy if my shoes last another year and if I can actually eat some of the veggies I’ve started to grow. I imagine a year or so out inviting people over for 2nd Sunday Barter Breakfast and whoever has stuff to trade just brings it and does that. We’ll have apples and goat cheese. Lemons? We might bake Meyer Lemon bread together. Zuchs? Stuff the big ones and we’ll eat it like pizza around a firepit while singing songs with our fellow bards and songstresses.

Does all this sound far afield from the release of the 2nd EIR for the proposed East Washington Place development in Petaluma? For me, its all of a piece. Doesn’t sound like a time for huge new retail and I said so at Council. Doesn’t sound like a time for huge new anything till we understand if we actually have too much housing and commercial property, too much imaginary money and not enough real goods. And real goods take real trucks and boats to carry them, sometimes over land and sea – and we’ve gotta quit that bit as much as possible. Pollutes the air; uses fuel that is gradually going away. Too pricey.

Loved quote this week from SF Chronicle, story Shifting habits may slow recovery, Tom Abate Ed Lemmer, director of UCLA’s Anderson Forecast, said “We need to turn our shopping malls into factories. Our economy … is going to have to build more of the stuff we buy.” Yup; sure of it. And another reason to go slow when approving over 3,000 sq ft. of new retail for Petaluma – would be over 1 million sq. ft. if we approved every suggestion brought before the Council! But development is a priviledge rather than a right – so am hoping our SMART City Council approves only that development that benefits…over time and us all.

Simply put, retail is down now – 20, 30, 40% – with no guarantee its coming up again or in the same way. Meanwhile, air pollution is way up – just take a broom along a bit of East Washington and see how much Diesel soot you get in your dust pan! Not good for toddlers in the Swim Center or you walking down the street. And then there’s way more traffic congestion (possible 14,000 car trips per day was once suggested) and compliance with a General Plan and the Fiscal and Economic Impact Assessment (FEIA) both of which require developers to show they will provide a net positive for the City.

So wasn’t really shocked when 3 Council members brought up the idea that a new mall could, indeed, become a ghost mall – and wouldn’t it be prudent to include a tear down clause in any agreement with developers. Followed by the idea we should take a look at whether developers could deliver the promises they have made. Hey! I’m not against a net positive!

Next? An FEIA report that actually lists goods to be sold and dollars projected and points the way to blight we might face.
That would be very welcome!

The new EIR for East Washington Place is available if you care to wade through many many pages (online at http://cityofpetaluma.net/cdd/plan-eir.html.

That answer to the question to build or not to build should come in terms not just of dollars – but of sense. I can’t see adding thousands of square feet of retail to Petaluma when our classic and famous downtown would almost undoubtedly be blighted in the process along with other existing centers. We can’t tell which new stores could harm existing stores.

The Deer Creek FEIA lists $41 million of “new” money that would be extracted from existing businesses. Do you feel the creepy sensation of downtown shop doors being shuttered? Over retailing is the chief reason for failed traditional downtowns across the country according to author, Stacy Mitchell, a director of Institute for Local Self Reliance (ILSR).

The Petaluma Community Coalition put in place our town’s FEIA resolution, hoping that new developments would, as our new General Plan stipulates, show they provide some positive addition to our economic and civic wellbeing. What we see so far does not provide either of those elements. What it would provide is yet another opportunity for a group of major chain stores to take the bulk of profits they make away from our town, sort of like a wick soaking up profits for another location – the corporate headquarters of the chain, Executive Offices in Minneapolis Minnesota for Target stores. Meanwhile, our own, singular, special stores and services gets slammed, perhaps beyond recovery and our tourist attraction – the heart of Petaluma – gets hit – and hard.

And why would we want to endanger our downtown to have a copy of another store we can get to in a few minutes on the freeway – that is, if we haven’t taken the minutes it takes to see that Target products are generally available – and at the same low prices – at various stores existing in Petaluma. Sure, you have to plan what you buy now-a-days – but isn’t that part of our future together on the planet?